India Employment Report 2024 - Part 04

India Employment Report 2024 - Part 04

(இதன் தமிழ் வடிவத்திற்கு இங்கே சொடுக்கவும்)

Migration Trends in India (2000–2021)

• Understanding employment patterns and growth necessitates examining migration trends, particularly those related to employment.

Key Trends:

• Overall Migration Rate: The overall migration rate in India increased slightly by 2.1 percentage points, from 26.8% in 2000 to 28.9% in 2021.

Gender Disparities:

• Women: The migration rate among women rose significantly, increasing by 5.5 percentage points from 42.4% to 47.9%.
• Men: Conversely, the migration rate for men declined by 1.4 percentage points, falling from 12.1% to 10.7%.

Migration Due to Employment-Related Reasons

• Overview
• In 2021, about 10.7% of all migrants migrated for employment purposes.
• Reasons for Migration
• Searching for employment.
• Better employment opportunities.
• Transfer.
• Proximity to place of work.
• Lack of employment opportunities in previous place of residence.
• Gender Disparities
• Women: 1.7% of female migrants.
• Men: 49.6% of male migrants.
• Regional Highlights
• Delhi: 87.1%
• Karnataka: 63.2%
• Maharashtra: 59.5%

Changes in Employment Categories

• Self-Employment
• Consistent Increase: The number of workers in self-employment rose steadily during the pandemic years and continued into 2022.
• Vulnerable Work: This growth was particularly noted in unpaid family work in rural areas and among women.

Proportion of Workforce:

• Composition: A significant portion of self-employed individuals consisted of unpaid family workers.

Regular and Casual Employment

• Slow Growth: The number of people engaged in regular formal, informal, and casual employment increased at a slower pace during the pandemic.
• Casual Employment: Showed some resilience, with continued growth compared to other forms of employment.
• Decline Post-Pandemic: After the pandemic, regular and informal employment numbers declined, while casual employment held steady.

Geographic Distribution

• Rural: More than three-fourths of the additional self-employed individuals were in rural areas.

Changes in Real Monthly Wages and Earnings

• Overview
• The impact of COVID-19 on wages was significant during the peak pandemic years, with some recovery noted in 2022.
• Casual Wages
• 2020: Casual wages grew slowly, affected by lockdown measures.

• 2021: Growth remained negligible.
• 2022: A revival in the growth rate of casual wages was observed during the recovery period.

Regular and Self-Employed Earnings

• Low Growth Rates: Both regular and self-employed earnings showed low or negative growth rates up to 2021.
• 2022 Recovery: Growth in both categories was noted during 2022.

Gender Disparities in Wage Growth

• Regular Wages: Both female and male workers experienced a slight negative growth rate in regular wages from 2018 to 2022.
• Self-Employed Earnings: Female self-employed workers faced a significantly higher negative growth rate in earnings compared to their male counterparts.
• Casual Wages: Women’s casual wages exhibited a slightly higher growth rate compared to men’s casual wages.
• These trends underscore the varying impacts of the pandemic on different employment types and highlight persistent gender disparities in earnings.

Sectoral Employment Analysis (2019–2022)

• Overview
• The broad sectoral analysis indicates varying trends in employment across different sectors between 2019 and 2022.

Sector-Specific Employment Trends

• Agriculture and Allied Sectors
• Consistent Growth: The agriculture sector saw a significant increase in employment, with increases of 30.8 million in 2020, 12.1 million in 2021, and 12.9 million in 2022.
• Construction Sector
• Steady Increase: Employment in the construction sector also showed consistent growth, with increases of 2.4 million in 2020, 5.7 million in 2021, and 3.3 million in 2022.

Other Sectors

• Stability or Minor Increase: The number of people had engaged in construction, trade, manufacturing, and information and communication services either remained stable or saw a small increase during the same period.

Impact of Lockdowns

• Job Losses During Lockdown: Quarterly data reveal job losses in the manufacturing, construction, trade, hotels, restaurants, and some areas of the agriculture sector during the nationwide lockdown.
• Post-Lockdown Recovery: Following the lifting of lockdown measures, there was a significant increase in employment in both the agriculture and construction sectors, reflecting the annual sectoral changes during the pandemic.

Technological Advancement and Employment Trends

• Overview of Employment Shifts (2000-2019)
• In 2000, high- and medium-skill jobs were at 5.1%. By 2019, this increased to 9.6%.
• Low-skill jobs rose from 60.5% in 2000 to 65.1% in 2019.
• No-skill jobs decreased from 34.4% in 2000 to 25.4% in 2019.

Shift in Employment Trends (2019-2022)

• Increase in Low-Skill Jobs.
• Continuing upward trend in low-skill job availability.

Decrease in High- and Medium-Skill Jobs

• Notable decline observed in high- and medium-skill job opportunities.

Impact of COVID-19 on Employment Quality

• Job Loss and Quality of Employment
• The pandemic caused significant job losses for regular salaried workers.
• Quality of employment was adversely affected, leading to economic strain on households.
• Financial Strain
• Families were pressured to start their own businesses.
• Involvement of family members in unpaid work increased.

Employment Trends (2000-2019)

• Increase in High- and Medium-Skill Jobs
• Share rose from 5.1% in 2000 to 9.6% in 2019.
• Increase in Low-Skill Jobs
• Share increased from 60.5% in 2000 to 65.1% in 2019.
• Decrease in No-Skill Jobs
• Share fell from 34.4% in 2000 to 25.4% in 2019.

Shift in Employment Trends (2019-2022)

• Increase in Low-Skill Jobs
• Continued rise in low-skill job availability.
• Decrease in High- and Medium-Skill Jobs
• Notable decline in high- and medium-skill job opportunities.

Labor Market Dynamics

• Sustained Increase in Low-Skilled Labor Supply
• Many individuals compelled to work to support family income.

Employment Trends in the Manufacturing Sector

• Increase in High- and Medium-Skill Jobs
• The share of high- and medium-skill jobs rose from 2.9% to 6.7% between 2000 and 2022.
• Increase in No-Skill Jobs
• The share of no-skill jobs increased from 9.7% to 20.4% during the same period.

Variability Among Enterprises

• Not all enterprises experienced these trends equally.
• In the Indian manufacturing sector, over 90% of enterprises are micro, small, and informal.
• These enterprises predominantly rely on manual and unskilled labor.

Sector-Specific Observations

• The trend of increasing high- and medium-skill jobs was more pronounced in formal, capital intensive, and modern manufacturing sectors.

Employment Trends in the Services Sector

• High- and Medium-Skill Jobs Distribution
• Public Administration, Health, and Education: 45.1%
• Financial, Business, and Real Estate: 42.3%
• Transport, Storage, and Communication: 19.7%
• Trade, Hotels, and Restaurants: 3%

Low- and No-Skill Jobs Distribution

• Trade, Hotels, and Restaurants:
• Predominantly low- and no-skill jobs, making up 97% of employment in this category.

Growth in High- and Medium-Skill Jobs

• Transport, Storage, and Communication:
• Share of high- and medium-skill jobs increased from 2.7% in 2000 to 19.7% in 2022.
• This growth includes jobs related to information and communication technology (ICT).

Impact of COVID-19 on ICT Employment

• The demand for high- and medium-skilled ICT workers accelerated during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of Technological Changes on Employment

• Employment Trends Over Two Decades
• Shift in Labor Demand:
• Increase in employment of highly skilled labor.
• Reduction in low-skilled labor employment in manufacturing and services sectors.
• Medium-Skill Employment Stability:
• Unlike in developed economies, technological advancements in India have not resulted in decrease in medium-skilled labor employment in absolute terms.

Robotization in India

• Current Robotization Rate:
• Very low, accounting for only 0.8% of global robots, with 4,945 industrial robots reported in 2021.
• Concentration of Robotization:
• Primarily limited to capital-intensive industries and medium- to large-sized service units.
• Impact on Low-Skilled Labor:
• Robot usage is restricted to a few tasks, resulting in a low likelihood of displacing low-skilled and unskilled labor in the near future.

Sectoral Trends:

• Subsequent sections will delve deeper into broad sectoral trends, further examining the
• dynamics of growth, productivity, and employment relationships.

Demographic Structure of India (2011-2036)

• Overview of the Working-Age Population
• Current and Future Projections: This section analyses the demographic structure of India,
• focusing on projections from 2011 to 2036 to understand the working-age population dynamics.
• Changing Population Trends: Examination of shifts in child, youth, adult, and older person
• populations to assess the evolution of India's labor force and dependency ratio.

Demographic Dividend

• Working-Age Population Advantage:
• A significant proportion of India’s population is in the working age (15-59 years), expected to
• remain within this demographic dividend zone for at least another decade.
• This demographic structure enables greater participation in productive work, enhancing national income.

Population Growth Projections

• Population Estimates:
• India’s population is projected to grow from 1.36 billion in 2021 to 1.48 billion by 2031, and
• further to 1.52 billion by 2036.

Trends in Birth and Death Rates

• Decline in Rates: Over the past two decades, India has seen a continuous decline in crude birth and death rates, leading to the lowest population growth rate since Independence.
• Decadal Growth Rates:
• The decadal growth rate from 2011 to 2021 was 12.5%, with a projected decline to 8.4% for the 2021-2031 decade.

Working-Age Population Proportion

• Growth in Proportion:
• The proportion of the working-age population increased from 61% in 2011 to 64% in 2021, with projections suggesting it will reach 65% by 2036, stabilizing thereafter.

Regional Demographic Changes in India

• Disparities in Youth Employment Trends
• Significant regional variability exists in youth employment and unemployment trends.
• These disparities affect the ability to create decent jobs and realize the demographic dividend
• effectively.
• Age Structure and Economic Development
• The status and pace of population aging differ across regions.
• Variations in age structure and levels of employment and economic development influence these differences.

Key States with Youth Population

• Uttar Pradesh and Bihar:
• These states have the largest share of youths in the population.
• Their youth populations are expected to grow by 2036.
• Other Notable States:
• Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan will also contribute significantly to India’s youth population.
• The youth population is projected to rise from 49.2% in 2021 to around 51.5% by 2036.

Regional Variations in Youth Population

• Eastern, Central, and Northern States:
• States like Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh have substantial youth and working-age populations.
• Southern States:
• Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have smaller youth populations.
• These populations are expected to decline further.

• In conclusion, overcoming the complex challenges in India's labor market calls for a comprehensive and strategic policy framework.
• By focusing on employment creation, job quality, equality, skills training, and knowledge enhancement, India can better navigate its demographic transitions and ensure a more inclusive and productive workforce for the future.

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