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Country-level model for estimating TB cases
April 14 , 2023
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- India has become the first country in the world to develop a sophisticated mathematical model to track the spread of tuberculosis (TB) cases.
- It is based on the natural history of the disease, individual cases of infection, healthcare-seeking behaviour, missed or correct diagnosis, treatment coverage, and outcome.
- According to WHO estimates, the TB incidence rate (per 10,000) in India in 2021 was 210.
- Using the Indian mathematical model, it was estimated to be 196 in 2022.
- The WHO estimated that the TB incidence absolute number to be 29.50 lakh in 2021.
- The Indian model suggested it was 27.70 lakh in 2022.
- According to WHO, the TB mortality rate (per 10,000) in 2021 was estimated to be 35, which reduced to 23 in 2022 as per the Indian model.
- WHO’s TB mortality absolute numbers were estimated to be 4.94 lakh in 2021.
- The Indian model suggested it was 3.20 lakh in 2022.
- In 2022, a total of 23,58,664 patients were diagnosed with drug-susceptible TB (DSTB).
- The treatment initiation rate among the notified cases for 2022 was 95.5 per cent.
- The highest case notification rate among States was seen in Delhi (546 per lakh population).
- The lowest among States was seen in Kerala (67 per lakh population).
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