India has become the first country in the world to develop a sophisticated mathematical model to track the spread of tuberculosis (TB) cases.
It is based on the natural history of the disease, individual cases of infection, healthcare-seeking behaviour, missed or correct diagnosis, treatment coverage, and outcome.
According to WHO estimates, the TB incidence rate (per 10,000) in India in 2021 was 210.
Using the Indian mathematical model, it was estimated to be 196 in 2022.
The WHO estimated that the TB incidence absolute number to be 29.50 lakh in 2021.
The Indian model suggested it was 27.70 lakh in 2022.
According to WHO, the TB mortality rate (per 10,000) in 2021 was estimated to be 35, which reduced to 23 in 2022 as per the Indian model.
WHO’s TB mortality absolute numbers were estimated to be 4.94 lakh in 2021.
The Indian model suggested it was 3.20 lakh in 2022.
In 2022, a total of 23,58,664 patients were diagnosed with drug-susceptible TB (DSTB).
The treatment initiation rate among the notified cases for 2022 was 95.5 per cent.
The highest case notification rate among States was seen in Delhi (546 per lakh population).
The lowest among States was seen in Kerala (67 per lakh population).